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Stock forecasting checklist
Eight checks before you trust a price target. Start with the evidence—not the upside.
Use this checklist beside any stock forecast, including an AI-generated report. It helps you inspect assumptions and uncertainty; it cannot establish that a target will be reached.
Check the forecast
0 of 8 reviewed
Record the stock, currency, reference price and its timestamp, plus the forecast end date. A 12-month target and a five-year target answer different questions. A target’s implied return is relative to its stated reference price—not necessarily today’s quote.
Ask: Can I identify exactly when this forecast starts and ends?
Open the company’s filing or earnings release and compare key figures with the report. Keep source, fiscal period and publication date beside each input. Distinguish historical financial facts, analyst estimates and AI interpretation; they are not interchangeable.
Ask: Can I find the original source for the earnings and growth inputs?
Do not mix basic and diluted EPS, reported and adjusted earnings, or annual and quarterly periods. Derived EPS needs the appropriate period’s income and compatible weighted-average shares. Check stock splits and per-share adjustments before comparing history.
Ask: Do period, currency and share basis match throughout?
A business forecast and the multiple applied to it are different assumptions. Identify what drives projected earnings—sales, margins and shares—and what sets the valuation. A higher multiple can raise a target even without stronger operating results.
Ask: Which assumptions explain the target, and where do they come from?
Some models change business assumptions in each case; others show valuation sensitivities around one earnings forecast. Ticker-Terminal’s Research 12-month outlook uses the existing next-four-quarter EPS projection and a bounded growth-linked multiple. Bear and Bull are −20% and +20% valuation sensitivities around Base, not separate earnings predictions or assigned probabilities.
Ask: Are these business scenarios, valuation sensitivities, or analyst targets?
A line joining the reference price to a target does not predict each month’s trading price. Historical prices show what happened; future connecting paths illustrate the stated endpoints. Prices can move outside the displayed range, and a smooth line does not imply low risk.
Ask: Does the chart clearly separate history from illustrative future paths?
Check the report’s catalysts and risks: demand, margins, competition, financing, regulation or dilution where relevant. Name an observable result you would revisit after the next filing. Missing, stale, unprofitable or incompatible inputs may make the numerical outlook unavailable; that is a reason to investigate, not invent a target.
Ask: What new evidence would make these assumptions no longer credible?
A scenario range is not a guarantee, a recommendation or a measure of the chance of profit. Consider your own horizon, diversification and ability to absorb losses. Keep uncertainty visible, and seek qualified advice where appropriate.
Ask: Could I explain the uncertainties without quoting the Bull target?
Try the checklist on your next research report
Create a free Ticker-Terminal account, research a stock, and review its sources, assumptions and scenario explanations. The 12-Month Price Forecast is available on all plans within existing research limits; numerical targets appear only when the inputs pass validation. Advanced five-year Forecast Lab remains Elite-only.
Free includes 3 AI research analyses per week. No card required.
Go deeper on the assumptions
This checklist reviews a forecast. For the full scenario-building workflow, read how to build Bear, Base and Bull forecasts with AI.
Further reading
- CFA Institute: Company Analysis—Forecasting — forecast horizons, methods and scenario analysis.
- CFA Institute: Equity Valuation—Applications and Processes — valuation inputs and approaches.
Educational information only, not investment advice. Forecasts can be wrong, and losses are possible. Read our risk disclosure and disclaimer.